Climate risk storylines connecting Europe to the world
Much of the food in our fridges is produced outside of Europe as most of our clothes, electronics, household goods and cars. Europe is also heavily dependent on other regions for the management of its coastal infrastructure and European financial institutions manage global portfolios. International cooperation seems more important than ever. All this interconnectedness is affected by the changing climate. Its globalised nature leaves the European economy vulnerable to the effects of climate extremes such as tropical cyclones, droughts and melting ice sheets happening in other parts of the world.
Horizon 2020-funded RECEIPTwants to explore the scale of these remote climate impact and their consequences. We will examine how Europe could prepare for the effects of climate change on its society and economy.
REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade
RECEIPT aims to create a plausible picture of Europe’s vulnerability to remote climate risks by connecting climate risks outside Europe with potential consequences for key European socio-economic sectors.
The project will:
how climate extremes in remote areas affect the European economy
into how some vulnerabilities can be prevented or reduced, and
future business opportunities.
Storylines’ are central part of RECEIPT. Our climate scientists will use them to convey complex issues in an engaging but scientifically robust way, by presenting internally consistent chains of cause and effect. RECEIPT aims to connect events, stories and data in a narrative format. Rather than using generic quantitative risk estimates to communicate complex worldwide interactions, we will develop and evaluate dedicated climate risk storylines connecting Europe to the world. RECEIPT will carefully document and establish the storylines so they are relevant, credible, science-based, reproducible and defendable.
5 focus sectors
5 focus sectors
Stakeholder expertise will help identify hotspot locations where climate hazards have led to significant interruptions in the past or can lead to shocks in the near future. We will map the socio-economic consequences of these shocks throughout our globalised network. Finally, we consolidate this package of sectors, geographic domains, potential shocks and their impacts as representative and plausible storylines. We will evaluate the selected storylines under three “Paris scenarios” ranging from an ambitious 1,5°C Paris agreement implementation to a 4°C scenario with severe and continuously worsening climate effects.
Stakeholders will be involved in RECEIPT from the start of the project. Initial sectoral stakeholders workshops will be held between February and May 2020 for each of the five sectors. The meetings will shape the focus of cause-effect chains between a specific sector and climate effects outside Europe this sector is vulnerable to. This will allow us to pinpoint current and future concerns and hotspots that are relevant to those working in our focus sectors.
Example: storyline for manufacturing
Textile and clothing production is highly concentrated in South and South East Asia. In this cotton-growing region, small producers face increased competition, relocation or shutdown, adding pressure to logistics and labour conditions. Climate extreme such as heat stress and floods affect labour and disrupt transportation and variable water resources, which results in reduced cotton production. Future climate may worsen workers’ conditions while droughts may threaten South Asian cotton yields and revenues. As a major textile importer, Europe will be directly and indirectly affected by shocks to this sector.
This storyline illustrates a collection of « micro-stories » that trace complex issues with raw materials, energy, infrastructure, work conditions, and transport. Storylines are supported by data analysis and a modelling framework to help map the evolution of changes under different climatic or socio-economic conditions. This combination of technical analysis and narrative understanding will enrich our picture of how European sectors can be affected by remote climate change.